Nicholson's predecessors and former U.S. envoys to Afghanistan urged
Obama earlier this month to keep troop levels steady at near 10,000
through the remainder of his term.
U.S.
soldiers from Dragon Troop of the 3rd Cavalry Regiment discuss their
mission during their first training exercise of the new year near
operating base Gamberi in the Laghman province of Afghanistan January 1,
2015.U.S. President Barack Obama may not decide before a NATO summit next month whether to alter plans to nearly halve America's forces in Afghanistan, a diplomat and a U.S. official said.
A decision had been expected at or
before the summit in Warsaw on July 8-9 on whether to stick to plans to
slash the 9,800 troops to 5,500 before Obama leaves office next year.
Former
commanders and envoys have warned that it would be a mistake. And with
preparations in full swing for the summit, the timing of any decision by
Obama remains unclear.
U.S. Defense Secretary Ash
Carter flies to Brussels on Monday to meet NATO counterparts, with
Afghanistan expected to be high on the agenda.
One
reason to decide on slowing the U.S. drawdown before the summit might
be to encourage NATO allies to keep their troops in Afghanistan, where
President Ashraf Ghani's government is battling a Taliban insurgency that has gathered fresh momentum.
NATO
allies seem less intent on cutting their troop presence, which could
give Obama more time to formulate and telegraph his own plans.
"We
have been moderately, pleasantly surprised at the willingness to stay
at current levels of most other allies, and some willingness to consider
increasing," said the diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
"Just because there is a summit doesn’t mean (you) need a decision," he added.
To be sure, Afghanistan will be a major issue at the summit and Obama still could make a decision before then.
"It
does not have to happen by Warsaw but it certainly will be a topic
there," said a U.S. official who spoke on condition of anonymity. "The
size and scope of other nation contributions are a logical consideration
in our decision-making."
The White House has yet to receive the recommendations from its new commander in Afghanistan, General John Nicholson,
who conducted a comprehensive security review during his first 90 days
on the job. The review's results have not been made public.
In
a sign of his willingness to broaden the U.S. role in Afghanistan,
Obama last week approved giving the U.S. military greater ability to
accompany and to enable Afghan forces in offensive operations, including
carrying out air strikes.
Speaking on Friday,
White House spokesman Josh Earnest told reporters the decision to
broaden the remit "does not limit in any way our ability to follow
through with the plan to draw down our troops at a level of 5,500 troops
by the end of this year."
Obama would consider changing the troop numbers if Nicholson recommended that, Earnest said.
Nicholson's
predecessors and former U.S. envoys to Afghanistan urged Obama earlier
this month to keep troop levels steady at near 10,000 through the
remainder of his term.
"This approach would also
allow your successor to assess the situation for herself or himself and
make further adjustments accordingly," the letter read.
Cutting the forces to 5,500, in turn, would erode the morale of Afghan government forces and bolster the Taliban, they wrote.
Obama
has already scaled back the troop withdrawal plans he laid out in May
2014, when he pledged to cut to roughly 5,000 by end 2015 and to "a
normal embassy presence ... with a security assistance component, just
as we've done in Iraq" by the end of 2016.
Among
the factors weighing in his troop decision include how much, if any,
additional support he may get from other NATO nations; the signal that a
cut will send to Ghani and to the Taliban; and what kind of legacy he
leaves his
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