In a series of moves over the past three weeks, authorities closed
down the main Shi'ite opposition al-Wefaq Islamic Society, doubled the
prison sentence on the group's leader, Sheikh Ali Salman, detained
prominent rights campaigner Nabeel Rajab and stripped Ayatollah Isa
Qassim, Bahrain's Shi'ite spiritual leader, of his citizenship.
Bahrain gambles with security by launching crackdown on Shi'ites
Bahrain aims to
end years of instability with a crackdown on Shi'ite political parties,
but it could be a gamble that risks further destabilising the
Western-allied kingdom and the wider Middle East.
Five years after it crushed street protests with Saudi
military support, the Sunni Muslim royal family that rules over a
population with a Shi'ite majority appears convinced it will again
weather international disapproval for tough measures.
In a series of moves over the past three weeks, authorities closed down the main Shi'ite opposition al-Wefaq Islamic Society, doubled the prison sentence on the group's leader, Sheikh Ali Salman, detained prominent rights campaigner Nabeel Rajab and stripped Ayatollah Isa Qassim, Bahrain's Shi'ite spiritual leader, of his citizenship.
Authorities
have managed to muzzle anger each time by deploying extra police
officers to the streets, but the move against Qassim this week brought
thousands in spontaneous protests outside his home west of the capital Manama.
The United States
and other Western countries have expressed alarm, but Bahrain appears
to be calculating that the distaste will not translate into concrete
reprisals against a country closely allied to key U.S. partner Saudi Arabia.
However,
opponents say that by limiting peaceful ways to express their views
through a recognised group like al-Wefaq, the government will only push
Shi'ite youths into the arms of extremists, including some responsible
for bomb attacks.
"Dangerously, by outlawing
the moderate opposition, the authorities are pushing all opposition into
illegality, which strengthens hardliners on all sides," said Ali Alaswad, a former member of parliament from al-Wefaq, now in exile.
"That
clearly leaves the prospect for dialogue and reconciliation completely
dead in the water. This will not take the country forward."
The concern is shared even by some who support the authorities.
"Extremism is currently confined to small arenas, involving mostly young men, many of them living abroad,"
said a former Bahraini official who asked not to be identified in a
country where open criticism of official policy is often muted.
"When
the main group (al-Wefaq) is struck, I believe that even without
intending it, you are opening the arena to all kinds of extremism," he added.
Regional
analysts worry that an intensification of sectarian animosity in
Bahrain could spill over into the wider region, where allies of Sunni
Saudi Arabia and Shi'ite Iran are fighting proxy wars from Syria to Yemen.
ANGER, DISMAY
The
United States, which maintains its navy's Middle East headquarters in
Bahrain, expressed alarm at the stripping of Qassim's citizenship. The U.N. human rights office said it was very concerned by what it called a "clearly unjustified" step.
Bahrain
has defended its actions as necessary for national security. The
authorities accuse al-Wefaq and Qassim of promoting sectarianism and of
links to Iran, which they blame for backing militants who have used
improvised bombs to attack security forces, killing 17 officers since
2011, according to the interior ministry.
Iran
denies fomenting violence. But the commander of an elite force in Iran's
powerful Revolutionary Guards, Qassem Soleimani, responded to the
stripping of the cleric's citizenship by suggesting Bahrainis may have
no choice but to resort to "armed resistance" against the ruling Al Khalifa dynasty.
Some
critics say Bahrain may have been encouraged to launch its latest
crackdown by a timid response from Washington to the kingdom's
suppression of protests five years ago, when "Arab Spring"
demonstrations were sweeping the region.
"This is the most naked show of brutal force since the violent 2011 crackdown," wrote Brian Dooley of the U.S. group Human Rights First, which lobbies Washington to stress the importance of rights in its foreign policy.
"It leaves the U.S. government's approach of quiet diplomacy and big rewards for small gestures of reform in tatters."
After
an international inquiry into the government's handling of the 2011
unrest, Bahrain made some reforms and opened political dialogue with
Shi'ite parties.
However, talks with opposition
ended without agreement in 2013, and since then Bahrain has remained
gripped by political deadlock. More recently, the smouldering discontent
on the streets has been exacerbated by financial strains caused by
lower oil prices.
Bahrain's close ally Saudi
Arabia, which allows no independent political parties of its own, has
been sceptical of pro-democracy measures.
Bahrain
is connected by a causeway to Saudi Arabia's oil-rich Eastern Province,
home to a large Shi'ite minority, and Riyadh worries that its own
Shi'ites could be emboldened by gains by Shi'ites in Bahrain.
Some
experts attribute the crackdown to a resurgence in influence of
Bahraini government hardliners who see limiting Shi'ite power as a
natural part of Arab opposition to non-Arab Iran, and who have been
emboldened since reform talks stalled.
However
others say al-Wefaq shares the blame, after it, along with three smaller
opposition groups, boycotted parliamentary elections in November 2014.
That made the opposition vulnerable to accusations that it was not
interested in dialogue.
Al-Wefaq said it chose not
to take part in the vote because the elected parliament would not have
enough power and because voting districts favoured the Sunni minority.
"This
is all still a fallout from the decision of al-Wefaq not to participate
in the most recent parliamentary elections, and they see Ali Salman as
someone who is not willing to compromise," said Justin Gengler, a Qatar-based Bahrain expert.
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