Story highlights:
- How Jonathan’s personality would further affect Nigerian politics
- Is Jonathan willing to put an end to the Boko Haram crisis?
- What would Jonathan’s second term mean to Nigeria’s unity?
This riled up the ex-president: “I could not stop myself from blurting out: ‘Mr. President, no Nigerian should be your enemy. You have to rule over all of them whether or not they like you. Please, you have to be like rain falling on good and bad people alike.'”
Contrary to the sentiment that many people will run away from Nigeria should Buhari become president, the opposite will most likely be the case: it is if Jonathan gets re-elected that people will run for cover.
Following is what’s likely to happen to security, the economy, and President Jonathan’s perceived enemies if he wins.
Enemies, real and phantom
Unlike Buhari who’d be focused on righting the wrongs and solving our problems, Jonathan, his friends said, is rather vindictive.
“I served in the State Executive Council with Dr Goodluck Jonathan,” Frank Akpoebi, former health commissioner of Bayelsa, said. “[...] Dr Goodluck told me he has a weakness and that he does not know how to forgive.”
Therefore, there’s no doubt that if he wins, President Jonathan will find ways to inflict punishment on Atiku Abubakar for refusing to accept his offer, as recently as a few days ago, to work with him.
He would definitely impose a penalty on Asiwaju Tinubu for refusing to work in an interim government and then mentioning the secret offers to the world.
While Gen Buhari has not been accused of such wicked bitterness by friends or foes, Jonathan is laden with this emotion. For example, he once threatened a governor (on a national TV) for simply asking the federal government to supply weapons to the army. He said he would withdraw Governor Shettima’s security detail, and he did. He did the same to the governor of Kano state and to Aminu Waziri Tambuwal.
If you cross the president, he threatens your life. Further, the regions which refused to support him, namely, Northeast, Northwest and Southwest are in trouble!
Will Boko Haram come back? How quickly will they re-establish their terror?
What will happen to security? As of this moment, the Chadian army is complaining that Jonathan’s soldiers are refusing to come forward to take over the liberated territories, leaving room for the crazy Boko Haram to return when Chadians and Nigeriens get tired of staying.
The New York Times reported that after the liberation of Damasak in Borno State, “rather than a display of important regional cooperation in the battle against Boko Haram, the visit [by foreign journalists] instead pointed out some of the confusion and resentment that are creating tension among neighbors. The soldiers from Chad and Niger had succeeded here, but there was not a single Nigerian soldier to be found. The force members were bewildered to find themselves as foreign liberators without any help from the Nigerians.”
Foreign military succeeded in defeating the insurgents and liberated a town; even if you’re not going to say thanks, at least do the patriotic thing and take back your territory… Nah.
We’re told that the army is winning the war. But we don’t exactly know what’s going on. A few weeks ago, Oby Ezekwesili requested that the government should allow independent reporting. That has not happened. Therefore, it’s not surprising that Chadian, not Nigerian, soldiers allowed foreign journalists.
“Even as the Nigerian government, with a national election looming, insists that its forces have chased Boko Haram fighters out of much of their northern territory,” The NYT reported, “the deserted streets and all-foreign force here paint a different picture. Hundreds of thousands of Nigerians still cannot return home to towns that have been, nominally at least, freed from Boko Haram.”
While some Nigerians think the government is not really interested in ending the crisis, our foreign partners think it’s because they are afraid. “We asked them to come, to receive this town from us, but they have not come, it is because they are afraid,” The NYT quoted a Chadian soldier.
Chadian foreign minister Moussa Faki Mahamat also expressed his frustration: “The Nigerian army has not succeeded in facing up to Boko Haram. The occupation of these towns, this is up to Nigeria. My fondest wish is that they assume their responsibilities.”
Do you think that the commander-in-chief who has allowed his military to behave in such a shameful manner in the season of elections would care enough to do better after he’s won?
Thus, if Jonathan wins a second term, insurgency will continue in the Northeast, and then spread to the entire Northwest, and then to Northcentral, and he wouldn’t give a damn!
What about the economy?
If Jonathan wins re-election, what happens to our economy? Remember when The Economist of London said the economy is growing in spite of Jonathan, not because of him?
“The single bright spot of his rule has been Nigeria’s economy,” The Economist wrote, “one of the world’s fastest-growing. Yet that is largely despite the government rather than because of it, and falling oil prices will temper the boom. The prosperity has not been broadly shared: under Mr Jonathan poverty has increased. Nigerians typically die eight years younger than their poorer neighbours in nearby Ghana.”
As of this moment, Nigeria is broke. Sam Nda-Isaiah, the publisher of Leadership newspaper, has been complaining for a very long time that Jonathan is giving the states half of what they are due. Right now, we don’t even know if they get up to that. Add to that the insanity of naira which continues to dive south. And we’re not sure the president and his chief central banker can address the decline.
How united are we going to be?
What happens to our unity? Nigerians have never been divided as we are now. The president has succeeded pitching Muslims against Christians, the North against the South, and Niger Deltans against the rest of Nigeria. The president makes policy speeches from churches and uses the cover of darkness to pay surreptitious visits to set leaders against one another.
What do Nigerians think?
When I asked my Facebook friends of their opinion on the possibility of Jonathan’s victory, many didn’t even want to think about it. Many painted scary pictures.
Abubakar Barde thinks our suffering would simply double. Joy Kings, however, summarized everyone’s thoughts:
“At this stage, the president can still boast of support from the highly corrupt and the gullible. If he wins (which I vehemently repudiate), reality will rapidly take its toll on the economy. The scale will finally fall off the eyes of the gullible and sycophants. The outcome will be hardened masses clamouring for an end to tyranny. The agitation for secession from the major ethnic groups will intensify, the gullible will feel used and betrayed. They will cry even louder than the opposition.
“Anarchy will be staring at the president. International community will start mounting pressure on his government. The international press will spotlight Nigeria, insurgency will be reborn, terror will intensify, number of assassinations will peak. And, just when it would seem it couldn’t get any worse, the people will cry out for freedom with one voice.
“The Gbagbolization (derived from ex-president Gbagbo of Ivory Coast) of Jonathan will commence, and Nigeria will be bonded for the first time in many years not by football, but by the unified sense of deprivation and exploitation. Anyway, none of this will happen because this change is inevitable.”
Personally, I’ve never encouraged anyone to live in other countries for purposes other than education. I’ve never coveted foreign citizenships. But if GEJ wins, that would be grounds to think in that direction.
Dr Ibraheem Dooba
Dr Dooba is a data scientist, a teacher and a columnist.
This
article expresses the author’s opinion only.
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